obama is opening leads in states that mitt romney can least afford to lose. have a look at our new poll today. the president now has a 10-point lead in the swing state of ohio, 53% to 43. in florida, another key swing state, mr. obama's lead is nine points, 53% to 44. and the president leads by 12 point in pennsylvania, 54 to 42. this quinnipiac university/cbs news/"new york times" polls has a margin of roar of three points so the leads are significant. our cbs news election analysis team is moving ohio from a toss- up to leaning toward mr. obama. with that, we estimate 255 electoral votes are solidly in the obama camp or leaning that way. for governor romney the number is 206 with 270 needed to win. the president would have to pick up just 15 in the remaining toss-up state that you see on this map in gray. if the president wins ohio, governor romney would have to nearly sweep those toss-up states in order to win the white house. so no surprise that we find both candidates in ohio today. our campaign 2012 team is on their trail and we're going to start tonight with nancy cordes. nancy.